NE Economy will grow slowly in 2012 – UNL


BBR Monthly LEI Report Indicates Small Economic Decline

Dr. Eric Thompson, director of the UNL College of Business Administration Bureau of Business Research, reported a small decline in the Leading Economic Indicator for the state of Nebraska. It was the first decline the BBR has reported since beginning monthly reports earlier this year.

via UNL | CBA.

Courtesy of the Lincoln 55+ Seniors Paper

Lincoln, Neb., April 20, 2012 — The Leading Economic Indicator for Nebraska declined by 0.32 percent in March, suggesting that the state’s economy will grow slowly in late 2012. The small decline in the monthly indicator followed three consecutive increases between December and February.
Faculty and students in the Department of Economics and Bureau of Business Research in the University of Nebraska-Lincoln College of Business Administration produce the monthly indicators report.
The indicator is a composite of six components that predict future economic growth: single-family building permits, airline passengers, initial unemployment claims, manufacturing hours, the value of the U.S. dollar, and business expectations gathered from the Survey of Nebraska Business.
“A decline in airline passengers and an increase in the value of the U.S. dollar both lead to the drop,” said UNL economist Eric Thompson, director of the Bureau of Business Research. The increase in the dollar reduces export activity.
While the aggregate Leading Economic Indicator for Nebraska declined, several components of the index provided evidence of strength in the state’s economy. Respondents to the Survey of Nebraska Business anticipated an increase in sales and employment over the next six months. Also, single-family building permits and manufacturing hours expanded in Nebraska between February and March.
Thompson said the decline in the indicator in March provides a note of caution about the outlook for the Nebraska economy.
“Leading indicator data from December through February suggested that the Nebraska economy will grow solidly during the late spring and summer of 2012, but the March decline in the leading indicator suggests that growth may stall in late 2012,” he said. “It will be important to see whether next month’s release confirms this negative trend or whether the leading indicator begins to expand again.”
The full Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators report and a Technical Report describing the indicators are available at the College of Business Administration website, http://www.cba.unl.edu <http://www.cba.unl.edu> .
 

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